NGOS' ACTIVITY IN JAPAN FOR COP3 ?

Let's Make A Proposal of Protocol ! ?

Jun Yoshimura

Global Warming Research Group of People's Forum 2001

COP3 is going to make a significant role since historical protocol which prevent global warming should be adopted there. It is expected to be held in Japan. We, Japanese environmental NGOs, are now preparing our proposal of a protocol. Here I would like to present an idea on the proposal.

Greenpeace International has already released a NGO's proposal of a protocol before COP1. We highly appreciated it but also think that an updated proposal which reflects current situation may be needed. A proposal of protocol presented by NGO is expected to have an effect to convey strong message to negotiators for a protocol and many people in the world. So it is considered to lead a desirable way of the negotiations and discussions for the protocol due to the effective lobbying by NGOs.

We are planning to present our proposal of protocol till COP2 which will be held in July in Geneva. We are hoping to prepare a NGOs' joint proposal by many NGOs not only in Japan but also wide range of NGOs in East Asia. We are glad to work with other NGOs for preparing joint proposal. So any ideas and your cooperations are welcomed.

[Outline of the Proposal - now under consideration]

(A) Atmospheric CO2 concentration should be stabilized below 450ppmv in the long term.

(B) Such a level mentioned in (A) should be low enough to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system to ensure human existence and sufficient food produciton; to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change and to enable sustainable development. The level should be periodically reviewed in corresponding to the best available scientific findings and impact assessment.

(C) Parties should stabilize their annual CO2 emission level per capita below 'global CO2 emission in 1990, divided by world population of each year' in the period of 2000-2035

(D) Such an emission target should be periodically reviewed to ensure not to exceed the level stated in (A).

(E) For some parties which has economic or social problems in achieving the target (C) in the period of 2000-2034, provisional target is suggested as follows:

[2000-2004] CO2 emission should be stabilized below 1990 level by the year 2000.

[2005-2019] CO2 emission per capita should be reduced more than 20% from 1990 level by the year 2005.

[2020-2034] CO2 emission per capita should be reduced more than 40% from 1990 level by the year 2020.

(F) The provisional targets stated in (E) should be periodically reviewed in corresponding to the best available scientific findings and the development in climate mitigation technology and the change of social structure.

In the Berlin Mandate, the following decision was adopted: 'not introduce any new committments for Parties not included in Annex I'. So the protocol are considered to be mainly for Annex I Parties of the Convention in the earliest stage (but also voluntary participation of non-Annex I Parties would be welcomed). Especially, provisional targets stated in (E) are mainly designed for Annex I Parties. For 'policies and measures', legal binding commitments for Annex I Parties would also be needed.

Now we are considering about non-CO2 greenhouse gasses in our idea of protocol. But our basic position is that protocol on CO2 is the most important priority to achieve our goal effectively.