A STUDY OF CO2 REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN JAPAN

Phase I: Interim Report
(Summary)
October 1997
CASA (Citizens' Alliance for Saving the Atmosphere and the Earth)
Climate Change Strategy Team
 

  

Citizens' Alliance for Saving the Atmosphere and the Earth
1-3-17-711 Tanimachi, Chuo-ku, Osaka 540 JAPAN
Facsimile number: +81-6-6941-5699
E-mail address: office@casa.bnet.ne.jp
 

 

1. Major Findings

2. Major Purposes of the Study 3. Study Method
  1. Policies and Measures Examined
As for policies for encouraging the employment of highly efficient new technologies, we made extensive policy research both on the sector-by-sector and cross-sectoral bases. For example, we looked into the details of up-grading of the energy efficiency standards in the Energy Conservation Law; subsidies, tax reductions, and preferential or concessional loans based on the Energy Saving and Material Recycling Promotion Law and other ordinances; and commercial regulations to support specific energy efficient appliances. We have thereby completed a policy portfolio we can recommend.

For policies and measures to materialize the "1990 Level" and "1995 Level" options, we explored into the government expenditure system, especially in regard to road construction and nuclear power development; the legal system, with specific emphasis on regulations on large energy consumers in industry; and such transportation measures as the introduction of road pricing and auto restricted zones; among others.

5. Comparison with Other Studies and Projections
Table: Projected National CO2 Emissions as Compared with the 1990 Level

 

Comment:

We regard CASA's "1995 Level" option and even the "1990 Level" option as politically acceptable in Japan. According to a public opinion poll conducted by government (Prime Minister's Office) in June 1997, as much as 72% of the respondents thought it okay to go back to a living standard before 1985 in order to prevent global warming.

CASA's "Technology-Fixed" Case and "Technology Only" Option are based on the assumptions similar to those of AIM's (Matsuoka/Morita) Technology-Fixed Case and Policy Case respectively, and both models have naturally projected similar figures of CO2 emissions. AIM (Asian-Pacific Integrated Model), developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies and Nagoya University, takes a bottom-up approach like CASA's study. The Environment Agency, Japan, has projected CO2 emissions based on this model.

AIM's WWF Policy Case shows much larger reduction possibility than CASA's "Technology Only" Option. This disparity mainly comes from the difference in the assumption about the rate of employing new technologies, such as electricity-gasoline hybrid vehicles, highly efficient industrial boilers and soft-drink vending machines, and new office appliances (e.g., facsimile telegraphs, computers, photocopying machines) with far less energy consumption to keep them on standby.

As for MITI's projection, a public access to basic data and the details of the study method has been precluded, but we suspect that MITI's Current Policy Case probably means no new policies for supporting new, better performing technologies, and that in that sense our baseline (i.e., CASA's "Technology-Fixed" Case) is relatively close to theirs (i.e., Current Policy Case). The projected CO2 emissions in 2010 are relatively close to each other.

6. Further Study In Phase II of this study (starting in October 1997) and beyond, we are going to examine the impact of the "1995 Level" and "1990 Level" options on the country's economy, in terms of GDP, employment, industrial structure, and international trade. We will also scrutinize the important issues left untouched in Phase I such as: the introduction of a carbon tax, the need to secure financial sources for policy implementation, and the problem of international carbon leakage.7. Documentation

The following documents are available from CASA:

  1. "A STUDY OF CO2 REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN JAPAN, Phase I: Interim Report (Digested Version)" (55pp., Japanese)
  2. "A STUDY OF CO2 REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN JAPAN, Phase I: Interim Report (Technical Version)" (345pp., Japanese)
 
 
Contents of the Digested Version: 

  Foreword 

I. CO2 Emissions in Japan 

II. Industrial Sector  

III. Transportation Sector  

IV. Residential Sector  

V. Commercial/Service Sector  

VI. Waste Disposal Sector  

VII. Power Generation Sector  

VIII. Conclusion: The Country's Reduction Potentials  

Afterword  

Appendix I. Forestry Sector  

Appendix II. Energy Taxes and Expenditure System 

8. About CASA CASA, Citizens' Alliance for Saving the Atmosphere and the Earth, was born in October 1988 as an advocacy NGO coping with both local and global environmental issues. CASA has since engaged in research from the citizens' point of view and made proposals/recommendations to promote environmental protection and conservation. Its projects are often conducted in cooperation with other Japanese and international NGOs. CASA is now supported by various organizations and individuals nationwide: 60 NGOs and some 500 researchers, lawyers and concerned citizens, as of October 1997. Climate change is one of the major issues CASA has been working on. CASA is a member of the Climate Action Network and a board member of Kiko Forum (Climate Forum 1997, Kyoto, Japan).

The Climate Change Strategy Team is composed of 15 researchers affiliated to CASA.

 

 
Citizens' Alliance for Saving the Atmosphere and the Earth(CASA)
1-3-17-711 Tanimachi, Chuo-ku, Osaka 540 JAPAN
Facsimile number: +81-6-6941-5699
E-mail address: mailto:casa@netplus.or.jp