A STUDY OF CO2 REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN JAPAN
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1. Major Findings
Industry | Steel: 19 technologies including highly efficient continuous Annealing Furnaces
Cement: 6 technologies including energy-saving grinders Paper/pulp: 22 technologies including lignin burning boilers |
Transportation | 9 technologies including electricity-gasoline hybrid vehicles |
Household | 15 technologies including highly efficient heat-pump air-Conditioning |
Service | 13 technologies including highly efficient office appliances |
Waste disposal | highly efficient waste-fired power generation |
Power generation | 6 technologies including solar and wind power generation |
0: The "Technology-Fixed" Case
No further utilization of the above 91 technologies. The level of the energy-consuming activities (e.g. material production, facilities and appliance use, motor vehicle transportation, waste disposal) will rise as projected by government and industry. The composition of energy source for power generation remains the same as in 1994.
1: The "Technology Only" Option
Policies implemented to encourage the employment of the 91 technologies. The level of the energy-consuming activities rises as projected by government and industry. The composition of energy source for power generation changes as projected by a consultative council for the Ministry of International Trade and Industry.
2: The "1995 Level" Option
Policies implemented to encourage the employment of the 91 technologies. The energy-consuming activities maintained at the 1995 level. The utilization of solar and wind energy as sources for power generation increases by roughly one quarter of what is expected by the Environment Agency.
3: The "1990 Level" Option
Policies implemented to encourage the
employment of the 91 technologies. The energy-consuming activities
maintained at the 1990 level. The utilization of solar and wind energy as
sources for power generation increases by roughly a half of what is expected
by the Environment Agency.
For policies and measures to materialize the "1990 Level" and "1995 Level" options, we explored into the government expenditure system, especially in regard to road construction and nuclear power development; the legal system, with specific emphasis on regulations on large energy consumers in industry; and such transportation measures as the introduction of road pricing and auto restricted zones; among others.
Comment:
CASA's "Technology-Fixed" Case and "Technology Only" Option are based on the assumptions similar to those of AIM's (Matsuoka/Morita) Technology-Fixed Case and Policy Case respectively, and both models have naturally projected similar figures of CO2 emissions. AIM (Asian-Pacific Integrated Model), developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies and Nagoya University, takes a bottom-up approach like CASA's study. The Environment Agency, Japan, has projected CO2 emissions based on this model.
AIM's WWF Policy Case shows much larger reduction possibility than CASA's "Technology Only" Option. This disparity mainly comes from the difference in the assumption about the rate of employing new technologies, such as electricity-gasoline hybrid vehicles, highly efficient industrial boilers and soft-drink vending machines, and new office appliances (e.g., facsimile telegraphs, computers, photocopying machines) with far less energy consumption to keep them on standby.
As for MITI's projection, a public access to basic data and the details of the study method has been precluded, but we suspect that MITI's Current Policy Case probably means no new policies for supporting new, better performing technologies, and that in that sense our baseline (i.e., CASA's "Technology-Fixed" Case) is relatively close to theirs (i.e., Current Policy Case). The projected CO2 emissions in 2010 are relatively close to each other.
The following documents are available from CASA:
Contents of the Digested Version:
Foreword I. CO2 Emissions in Japan III. Transportation Sector IV. Residential Sector V. Commercial/Service Sector VI. Waste Disposal Sector VII. Power Generation Sector VIII. Conclusion: The Country's Reduction Potentials Afterword Appendix I. Forestry Sector Appendix II. Energy Taxes and Expenditure System |
The Climate Change Strategy Team is composed of 15 researchers affiliated to CASA.
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